Who Will Repeat First 30 Save Season?
Michael Lins
11.20.09

In 2009, there were five closers who saved 30+ games for the first time; David Aardsma, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Ryan Franklin and Fernando Rodney.  The question you have to ask youself is how many of these closers will do it again?

Since 2005, there have been 82 other seasons where a pitcher has recorded 30 or more saves.  This has been done by a total of 35 pitchers.    Of the 35 picthers, only 22 (63%) have had more than season of at least 30 saves.  With a 37% failure to achieve a second 30+ save season, it should become apparent that the odds are against all 5 closers providing another season of 30+ saves.  As many owners will tell you, deciding on which closer(s) to add to your team can be the difference between finishing in the money or looking up at others from below.

If you follow five key indicators, you'll be able to have a much better idea of which pitchers are likely to repeat and which are likely to disappoint.  A closer capable of repeating will demostrate good control, walking less than 3 batters per 9 innings pitched, as well as striking out at least 3 batters per every walk.  The ideal candidate will be able to strikeout at least one batter per inning, which will allow them the ability to get out of jams.  In addition to the importance of control, a closer will also need to keep runners of base (less than 1.15/IP) and the ball in the ballpark (less than .75HR/9IP).  

Obviously, the more of these skill sets a pitcher exhibits, the greater his chance of reaching 30 saves becomes.  It should be noted that 8 out of 87 (9%) 30+ save seasons were recorded by closers who had none of these traits.  What this means is that while it is not impossible for a pitcher who does not display closer qualities to turn in at least 30 saves, it is far less likely.

Let's take a look at the five closers who contributed 30 saves for the first time.  There were some real bargains here, which helped many owners in 2009.  Who is likely to repeat?  I'll give you the numbers, as well as the chances of a repeat.   

Heath Bell (42 Svs).  Given the opportunity to close, Bell didn't disappoint, saving 42 games for the Padres.  If you look at Bell's season compared to his career indicators, you'll see vey similar numbers, which would indicate Bell's season was within his normal skill set.  His BR/9 improved falling from 1.21 to 1.12 for the season.

Chances of another 30+ save season - 70%

David Aardsma (38 Svs).  It looks like Aardsma may have found a home in Seattle, as he converted 38 of 42 saves. Aardsma has bounced up and down between the majors and minors, playing for 5 different teams in 5 different seasons.  Aardsma will turn 28 in December and I look for him to continue to improve.  If Aardsma can harness his control, 30 save seasons would be more likely.  Don't count him out, but you also shouldn't count on him yet. 

Chances of another 30+ save season - 45%

Ryan Franklin (38 Svs).  The Cardinals closer situation going into 2009 was up in the air.  Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte were in the mix.  When no one stepped up and grabbed the opportunity, LaRussa and Duncan went back to Franklin, who followed up his 17 saves in 2008, with 38 more in 2009.  Franklin has started and worked out of the bullpen in his career.  Since 2006, Franklin has worked exclusively out of the bullpen.  He lacks the ability to dominate (5.53K/9IP since 2006).  He also allows too many baserunners (1.30/IP). While I would never count out a pitcher that LaRussa and Duncan manage and coach, the odds of Franklin repeating his success don't appear to be likely. 

Chances of another 30+ save season - 20%

Fernando Rodney (37 Svs).  Many people have speculated over whether Rodney had the skill set to be Detroit's closer.  Before the 2009 season, the Tigers added Brandon Lyon to their 'pen.  While Lyon is not going to the Hall of Fame, he was coming off a 26 save season for the Diamondbacks.  Rodney has not demonstrated great control, walking 4.64 batters every 9 innings over his career.  Rodney even struck out over a batter less per 9 IP in 2009 (8.58 career vs. 7.26 2009).  Rodney is a perfect example of Billy Bean's argument that "anyone" can get 3 outs and record a save.  None of these indicators would lead me to believe a repeat season is going to happen.  

Chances of another 30+ save season - 10% 

Jonathan Broxton (36 Svs). After three years of set up duty, Broxton was finally haded the closer's job in 2009.  With 14 saves in 2008, following Saito's injury, big things were expected of Broxton and he didn't disappoint.  Broxton dominated opponents in the regular season, stiking out 13.50/9IP, while allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning (0.96/IP).  The only concern Broxton owners should have is hisoccasion wildness 3.58 walks/ 9 IP over his career. Broxton has shown improvement in his key performance indicators over the last couple of seasons.  It may be hard for him to be as dominant as he was in '09, but look for Broxton to be among the lead leaders in saves when the season is over.

Chances of another 30+ save season - 80%

BONUS INFO***

Andrew Bailey (26 Svs).  Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey didn't start the season as the team's closer, but it didn't take long to see that Bailey had closer capability.  Elected to the All-Star game, the rookie showed both dominance (9.83K/9IP) as well as control (2.59BB/9IP) and (3.93K/1BB).  Bailey also stymied opponents bats, allowing only 0.88BR/IP.  It's always difficult to know for sure what you have with a rookie.  Bailey's minor league stats would indicate that Bailey has control concerns, but keep in mind, those are stats for both starting and bullpen work.  Most pitchers indicators improve when they move to the bullpen.

Chances of his first 30+ save season - 65%