The 5 and 5 Foundation Strategy
Michael Lins
3-31-08

On Saturday, March 16, 2008, I had the opportunity to draft in the NFBC's superdraft. The Superdraft is a 15 team, 30 round roto league draft. The entry fee for the Superdraft is $2,500 and the top three teams receive the following; $20,000, $7,500, and $3750 respectively.

For those unfamiliar with the NFBC, it is a national contest, with close to 400 owners compete in leagues of 15 to try to win not only their league prize, but also the $100,000 grand prize. In short, it is the premier fantasy game in the industry. In addition to it's main event, there are several other high stakes league options. One them being the Superdraft.

The Superdraft league is filled with proven players, including Eddie Gillis, two time winner of the NFBC Ultamite league (double Superdraft's entry fee and prizes and you have the Ultamite league.) In addition, the league also has NFBC veterans and accomplished owners; Dan Kenyon (ranked #6 overall by NFBC) and Rick Thomas (ranked #18 overall) and Joe Thelen (ranked #21 overall) are all two time main event league winners. In addition, Bob Mazur (#30 overall), Jeff Dobies, Glenn Schroter, and Phillip McDonald have also won main event league titles. Where do I stand? I am ranked 324 out of 360! Yes, the lowest in the league.

I took a look at my drafts and how I finished and they have gotten progressively worse each year. When evaluating why, I noticed something, I was letting the "consensus opinion" of the NFBC rankings get in the way of the picks I made. Instead of using it to my advantage, I followed the flow. If the overall feeling was Soriano went #3 in 2007, there I was to scoop him up instead of taking Matt Holliday, who I had ranked ahead of Soriano. I don't say this with the thought that I had a better understanding of the players and who would do what. In 2007, I had Hanley Ramirez just making the top 100. I thought a sophmore slump would zap his power and leave him on base less, meaning less SBs. My point is, I was letting the opinions of others influence my decisions. I knew I had to make changes if I wanted to compete with such a strong field.

And than it hit me...

While reviewing the drafts to see where my mistakes had been, I realized something that goes against the grain...a strategy that I believe will push me towards a league title. I believed in it enough to risk $2,500 to have a shot at $20,000 and as the season goes on, we'll continue to track the progress of the league and see if the strategy is paying off.

The key to winning this league would be to build a strong base in both hitting AND pitching. Based on past league performances, I figured that it would take 115 of the possible 150 to win this league. With the competition being so tough and the draft being so equal, the winner may be able to get away with 110 points, but I set my goal at 115.

In reviewing my strategy, I set targets of 62 points for pitching and 53 points for hitting to win the league.

Before the draft began, I took a long look at pitching and hitting. With 14 hitters in your starting line up, each hitter accounts for roughly 7% of the total hitting. On the other hand, with only 9 pitchers in the starting line, each pitcher represents roughly 11% of your pitching. These numbers are skewed by number of at bats and inning pitched, which will also work in your favor, if you let it. For example, if 7 of your 9 pitchers are starters, they pitch more innings and will have a greater influence on whip and ERA then relievers will. This can be good or bad, depending on who you draft.

I set targets that I thought would get me to the point total I needed to win. The targets were as follows:
Avg - .285
Runs - 1150
HR - 278
RBI - 1115
SB - 175

Wins - 105
ERA - 3.58
SV - 95
K - 1225
WHIP - 1.24

I figure these targets, if achieved, will bring approximately 120-125 of the possible 150 league points. This leaves a little wiggle room in 1 or 2 categories.

Looking at the average draft position of players, thanks to mockdraftcentral, I was able to place reasonable expectations on which rounds I could expect to draft players. The question now, was who do I target?

I was going to be drafting from the 10 hole, which was a favorable spot for me. I broke the draft into three sections; the foundation (RDs 1-10); the middle rounds (RDs 11-20); and the fillers (RDs 21-30). The foundation would be used to select players that would build the foundation of the team. These 10 players would form the core of the team, and I would be expecting 2/3 of my points to come from this group. While doing some draft analysis, I decided that I would grab 5 pitchers with my first 10 picks. I was looking at all high K, low ERA and whip guys. These five guys, would be the key to the season.

I set my sights on the following five pitchers to grab in the following rounds; Verlander (4), Hamels or Harang (5), Maine or Cain (8), Billingsley (9) and Snell (10). If I grabbed these guys, I projected I would have 70 Wins, 875 K's, a sub 3.55 ERA and WHIP of about 1.21, with roughly 950 IPs. Not only would these projections bring in the majority of my pitching points, they would allow some flexibility in who I picked up later, as the ERA and WHIP could take a small hit.

As far as hitting, with the majority of owners grabbing early over pitching, it was also crucial to grab hitters that would form a strong foundation. Ignoring hitting early will cripple your team. I knew the first two players would be critical in forming my hitting. I could either go power heavy or factor in some SB's. Do I go for a Fielder/Howard (Rd1) and Teixeira/C Lee (Rd2) or Crawford (Rd1) and Rios (Rd2)? In the first option, I saw 75+ HR, 200+ runs and 240+ RBI. In the second option, I saw 45 HR, 195 Runs, 175 RBI and 80 SBs. On the surface, I liked the first option, but examining the middle rounds of the draft, I saw the opportunity to grab more power players than SB guys, so I decided to go with the Crawford and Rios option. Now, the only decision to be made was who do I take in Rd3? Toluwitski? Cano? Abreu?

While trying to decide, a possibly damaging blow to my strategy came out. Pujols' elbow was cause for concern and he began dropping in drafts. This would move a player up a pick. Crawford and Braun (someone I briefly considered as #1 pick) were moving up. Would Crawford last until #10? How should I adjust my strategy.

One thing I had learned was that no matter how much planning you do, you can never control the picks of others. Some reach and other times players fall. You have to be ready to adjust on the fly.

Crawford did last until 10 and I grabbed Rios is the second round. In the third round, I made my first critical decision. I decided to grab Erik Bedard instead of Cano. Focusing on a 5 and 5 foundation, I needed to make sure the first two pitchers I grabbed were elite. If I waited until rounds 4 and 5, I may miss out on one. I followed Bedard with Verlander and had now created a 1-2 punch that could deliver 400+ K's, 35+ wins, and a sub 1.22 Whip and an ERA below 3.50.

I am happy I went with my instincts and grabbed Bedard, as Harang and Hamels were both taken in round 4, so had I waited, I would have Verlander and my choice of Beckett, Sanabthia or Kazmir. I like Kazmir, but the injury was a concern. In round 5, I took a "risk." While planing on grabbing a power guy, like Konerko to improve my hitting, I saw a chance to add a high average, high injury risk player instead, so I grabbed Chipper Jones, allowing some flexibility later in the draft when looking for power. Konerko lasted until the 6th round, so I took him and followed that pick up with Vernon Wells in Rd 7. Pitchers were now coming off the board fairly quickly.

I think it's important to note the majority of owners will leave after ten rounds with 3 pitchers, 2 starters and 1 closer. To really take advantage, Rounds 8,9 and 10 had to be used on great pitchers. I took Cain, Snell and Burnett. The foundation was complete. After ten rounds, I had:

Carl Crawford 585 ABs .295 avg 90 Runs 15 HR 75 RBI 50 SB
Alex Rios 600 ABs .290 avg 105 Runs 30 HR 95 RBI 25 SB
Erik Bedard 195 IP 16 Wins 3.40 ERA 230 K's 1.21 Whip
Justin Verlander 215 IP 19 Wins 3.35 ERA 195 K's 1.21 Whip
Chipper Jones 450 ABs .315 avg 88 Runs 25 HR 85 RBI 5 SB
Paul Konerko 540 ABs .270 avg 85 Runs 30 HR 95 RBI 0 SB
Vernon Wells 550 ABs .285 avg 90 Runs 25 HR 90 RBI 10 SB
Matt Cain 205 IP 12 Wins 3.70 ERA 165 K's 1.26 Whip
Ian Snell 200 IP 13 Wins 3.80 ERA 175 K's 1.30 Whip
AJ Burnett 180 IP 13 Wins 3.60 ERA 195 K's 1.22 Whip

Totals Hitting 2725 ABs .290 avg 458 Runs 125 HR 440 RBI 90 SB
Totals Pitching 995 IP 73 Wins 3.56 ERA 960 K's 1.24 Whip

Looking at the totals, I have 4 remaining pitchers and 9 remaining hitters. To hit the targets set, each pitcher must average:
8 Wins, 3.60 ERA, 24 Saves, 1.24 Whip and 67K's. This can be accomplished with one more decent SP and 3 good closers/set up men, although I will fall short in saves.

In the following rounds, I drafted the following players to achieve the picthing targets:
Troy percial (13), Tom Gorzelanny (17), CJ Wilson (18), Bob Howry (23), Randy Wolf (24)

As far as the hitters, the remaining will need to average the following to hit all targets:
.282 avg, 77 Runs, 17 HR, 75 RBI and 9 SB.

In the following rounds, I have selected players which will help reach most of the targets:
Pat Burrell (11), Khalil Greene (12), Orlanso Hudson (14), Freddy Sanchez (15), Ramon Hernandez (16), David DeJesus (19), Jason Varitek (20), Aubrey Huff (21) SBs will be missed and possibly average as well, although it will be close. Remember, hitting all together would bring back an estimated 120-125 points. 115 points should make a serious run at the league championship and $20,000!