Can an Idiot Win the NFBC?
Michael Lins
11.20.09

                 Every March, fantasy baseball fanatics get together in select cities or online to participate in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event, which is a live draft featuring some of the most skilled fantasy players in the world.  For a $1,300 entry fee, you will be placed into a league with 14 other owners, where you will be assigned a draft slot to compile a 30 man roster and compete for the $100,000 grand prize.

                The success of the NFBC Main Event is easily measured, as the overall number of teams competing in the Main Event has doubled since the NFBC inaugural season of 2004.  In 2009, there were 390 teams entered.  Scoring is based on the standard 5x5 roto league scoring rules, with the team in each league leading each respective roto category (Avg, R, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, W, SV, Whip and K) receiving 15 points, and the second leading team in each category receiving 14 points and so on.  This means that each year, the most points any team can have in their league would be 150, since the maximum number of points per category is 15 and there are 10 categories scored. 

                Where things really get interesting is in the overall scoring.  The total number of points depends on the total number of teams entered.  For example, if you have 345 teams (23 leagues), you will be able to score a maximum of 345 points per category, with a maximum of 3,450 points possible.  In 2009, there were 390 teams, meaning a maximum of 390 points per category times 10 categories to equal 3,900 total points.  Overall champions usually capture about 80-85% of all available points.  Lindy Hinkleman’s Bob Enzyte team hoarded 3,458 total points or 88.7% of the possible 3,900 points.  This was the largest percentage of points ever collected, setting a new standard while raising the question of how could he have been beaten?

                There are many owners with many theories on what it takes to win the NFBC overall prize.  Some of the more common theories include compiling 75 HR/ 75 SB with your first 3 picks, drafting from positions of scarcity, grabbing two reliable closers, best player available and more.  Owners also believe while you can’t win the draft in the first couple rounds, you can lose it if you make the wrong picks. 

                In addition to the draft, owners must also decide on their best weekly line ups, as well as continue to stay on top of the free agent pool, while managing a free agent budget of $1,000 for the entire season.  Whether you believe the success of your season is 65% draft, 25% free agents, 5% weekly line up submissions and 5% luck, there is no doubt by most owners, these are the key elements of a championship season.

                Now that the season is over, and the most successful season in NFBC history has been recorded, as Lindy pulled in $241,300 in league championships and multiple title bonuses.  We’d like to congratulate Lindy, as he has accomplished something no one else has been able to do.  Lindy stated he wanted to get 75/75 HR/SB with his first three picks.  He grabbed Pujols, Kemp and Rios with his first three picks, which provided 88 HR and 72 SB.  Looks like there may be something to this whole 75/75 theory! 

                Focusing on the 15 team Main Event auction and it’s $100,000 grand prize, let’s see how Hinkleman could have been beat.

                I looked at many different combinations to starting the draft and it seemed like Pujols provided the best opening.  Matt Kemp was a very nice late 2^nd choice Who would be the best guy to round out the top 3?  Jason Bay?  Jason Ellsbury? As I kept reviewing the different combinations, and asking myself, how could I have won the championship, I began to wonder, did the top three picks need to be correct?  How important were they?  Then it finally hit me.  There was one person who could have beaten Hinkleman and the 388 other competitors – an idiot.

                Stay with me and think back to March 2009.  Do you remember the value of players at that time? 

                Now, imagine this, you are sitting at the draft table and the draft begins with the first owner not at the table.  After sixty seconds, the first owner is skipped and the second team gets the first pick, calling out, “Hanley Ramirez.” 

                “What an idiot!” you think to yourself looking at the empty chair for team 1.  The draft is under way.  Names like Pujols. Reyes, Wright, Utley, Sizemore, Howard and Fielder all come off the board.

                The second round ends and the third begins and still no owner to draft for team 1.  The same thing happens as we close round 4 and open round 5.  The draft commissioner has notified the NFBC manager for your location, who has called the missing owner, looking for an explanation.  “Please keep the draft going.  We have called the owner and he has advised he is on his way.  We offered to do a sit in and let him know what picks were made before him, so when his turn comes up, we can relay his pick by phone, but he said he didn’t want to do that.  He’ll pick when he gets here.”

                At the end of the first 10 rounds, word begins to spread about the missing owner, as players from other leagues balk at the unfair advantage the 14 owners have.  The missing owner finally walks up to the draft table, drops his bookabg on the floor and looks at the board, just in time to start round 11. 

                 As the 11^th round is about to begin, the draft commissioner and the NFBC review the rules with the people at the table and advise the missing owner, who picked first is now up on the clock.  Once it starts, he we have 60 seconds to make a pick.  After that, he will have another 60 seconds and so on, until he has caught up.  If he misses a pick in 60 seconds, the draft will continue with the next owner.

                The missing owner takes a quick glance at the board and says, “That’s ok, I’ll just take one pick and then we can move on to the next owner.  This way, I can see who is left on the board and decide who I want.”

                Some of the owners laugh, while the suspicious ones look around, trying to find out who this owner is in cahoots with. 

                “I’ll take Justin Verlander,” the missing owner calls out and round 11 is officially underway.

                As the draft begins to wrap itself back around towards the end of the 12^th round, the missing owner prepares for back to back picks, selecting OF Justin Upton and 3B Mark Reynolds.  “Let’s keep going around and then I’ll make up my missed picks at the end of the draft.  I don’t want to hold anyone up,” the missing owner explains.

                The other owners at the table laugh, continuing to wonder if this “idiot” is teaming up with another owner, trying to throw the draft.  Those laughs begin to fade and suspicion begins to set in as the idiot calls out his next picks…OF Shin-Soo Choo…SP Wandy Rodriguez…SP Chris Carpenter...SP Ubaldo Jimenez…he has now made 7 picks as the rest of the table is in round 17.

“Come on!” another owner cries out from the table.  “This is BS!  Verlander…Carpenter, these guys are both injury risks!” 

                “I know!” another owner chimes in.  “Upton, Reynolds and Choo are all competing for playing time in possible platoon situations!  I think we need to bring this to Greg’s attention.  Something isn’t right here!  Jimenez?  Give me a break – that guy pitches in Colorado!”

                The “idiot” as people are now calling him, continues his draft, ignoring the other owners.  He finished rounds 18,19, 20 by rounding out his top 10 picks.  He selects 2B Aaron Hill, SS Jason Bartlett and 1B Kendry Morales.

                Twenty rounds are in the books and the roster of the idiot is as follows:

P – Justin Verlander

OF- Justin Upton

3B – Mark Reynolds

OF- Shin-soo Choo

P- Wandy Rodriguez

P- Chris Carpenter

P-Ubaldo Jimenez

2B- Aaron Hill

SS- Jason Bartlett

1B- Kendry Morales

            “What are you doing?” the owner sitting next to him asks, as they review the draft board during the break.  “Is this some kind of joke?”

            “I’ll take John Baker, catcher, Florida Marlins,” the idiot calls out and the draft is back underway and the tardy owner fills out his starting roster with more players who will open the season competing for playing time.

RD 12 – Clint Barmes

RD 13 – Miguel Olivo

RD14 – Michael Cuddyer

RD 15 – Juan Rivera

RD 16 – Franklin Gutierrez

RD 17 – Edwin Jackson

RD 18- Ryan Franklin

RD 19 – Pedro Feliz

RD 20 – Ryan Madson

                The draft is over for the rest of the owners, and the idiot has now sparked so much attention, he has quite a large crowd gathered around him, as he fills out his starting roster with…

RD 21 – Ben Zobrist

RD 22 – David Aardsma

RD 23 – JA Happ

                “I’ll email Greg my reserves.  I have to go – emergency at home,” the idiot says calmly, as he gets up and walks away from the table. 

The next few days, the idiot’s roster is posted on the message board and the owner is ripped for his draft, as message board posters all but assign him last place. 

                “Anyone who gets beat by this idiot should just quit playing,” one of the posters writes. 

                It seems as if the message board may have discouraged the owner, as all season, no one hears from him.  He doesn’t bid on free agents or change his starting line up once – not even to replace his players when they are injured.

                The NFBC message board continues to talk about the fairness of this, but as the other owners are out of the top 25 overall, things begin to calm down and just then a funny thing happens, the idiot’s team pushes its way towards the top, and at the end of the season, his roto stats and points are:

            Hitting

            Avg - .2827     (354 pts)

            Runs – 1130    (361 pts)

            HR – 343        (390 pts)

            RBI – 1172     (389 pts)

            SB – 160         (266.5 pts)

            Pitching

            ERA – 2.944   (390 pts)

            Wins – 102      (344.5 pts)

            SVs – 86         (322 pts)

            Whip – 1.193  (390 pts)

            K’s – 1,286     (330.5 pts)

                Total points – 3537.5 = 90.7%...The idiot has become the first owner to capture 90% of all possible points, beating everyone to become champion, proving the draft can be won by skipping the first 10 rounds, not using your bench and avoiding free agent claims.  If you identify the value picks in the mid and late rounds, you will compete for the title. 

*All player's draft availability based on ADP leading into the Main Event.