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Mailbag Submissions
If you have a question you would like to have answered, please submit it to our mailbag. Your questions may either be featured on the website, in our newsletters or both!
Please check every week or so to see what new submissions have been sent into our mailbag and how we answer the questions! We are happy to answer all questions about player projections, fantasy strategies, gaming and more!
Dec 31, 2009...HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
For the first mailbag, I thought I'd take a look a few questions which have come up during the drafts I have completed for 2010.
Q:Which player currently being drafted in the first round is mostly likely to disappoint owners?
A:Jacoby Ellsbury went 11th overall in one of my drafts. I know he is coming off a 70 SB season, but I thought that was a little early. He has averaged 60 SB's over the last two years, so he could repeat last season's success, but he failed to top 100 runs (94) and hit only 8 HR, while driving in 60 RBI. He did hit .301, and is a top 50 pick, just not sold on him closing in on top 10 yet.
Q:How likely is Zack Greinke to repeat?
A:In 2009, Greinke captured the Cy Young award, while posting career highs in Wins (16), ERA (2.16), K's (242) and Whip (1.07). Greinke pitched 229.1 innings during the '09 campaign. While Greinke showed he is one of the top starters out there, owners who expect a repeat will be disappointed. I look for another excellent season, but one that has some dips, beginning with IP (210); K's (225); W's (14); ERA (3.10); and Whip (1.15). This will be another great season, but if you bid/draft looking for another ERA below 2.20 and whip below 1.10, you'll be drafting too high or spending too much!
Q:What kind of season can we expect out of Adrian Beltre?
A:In '09, Beltre managed only 8 HR's in 449 AB's, while knocking in 44 RBI, stealing 13 bags and hitting .265. Now, he's looking for $10M+ per season. Beltre will be an interesting free agent to track. If healthy, he should be able to provide 20+ HR and 80 RBI, which is an excellent value for a player slipping past the first 15 rounds in a 15 team draft. On the other hand, if he's injured, Beltre could post a repeat of his 2009 campaign. The question that owners have to ask themselves is, which Beltre will be playing in 2010. I'd bet on a minimum of 20+ HR/ 80 RBI. Owners who are getting him late, are going to be pleased with his season.
Q:Who are your early sleepers?
A:I like Kyle Blanks, even though his high K rate (55 in 148 AB's) in 2009. He also hit 10 HR's and should be given an OF job in San Diego's OF, provided San Diego does not bring in a veteran. He'll struggle some, as he will just turn 24 at the end of the season (Sept 11th), but the size 6'6" 285 lbs and power potential are there. Blanks can also play some 1B if Gonzalez is moved during the season.
I also think this will finally be there year that Brandon Wood claims a starting job in Anaheim (3B) and keeps it. His average may be below average, but his power numbers should come. Wood will probably hit lower in the order, so don't expect more than 60 Runs and 70 RBI, but 25 + HR is not out of the question.
Q:Who do you think will disappoint owners in 2010?
A:Russell Martin. Before the start of the 2009 season, there were rumors of Martin being involved in trade talks. At the time, I was a bit surprised as young catchers, who make the All Star team are rarities. In 2007, Martin's line was .293/87/19/87/21. Since then, his HR total has dropped to 13 in 2008 and then 7 last year. His RBI total has dropped to 69 in 2008 and 53 in 2009. Even his SB total has dropped. After swiping 21 bags, Martin dropped to 18 in 2008 and 11 in 2009. HIs batting average fell from .293 to .280 to .250. What is going on with him? Injury? Declining skills? No matter what the cause, it looks like the Dodgers saw something they didn't like heading into 2009. I'd keep that in mind when drafting catchers. If Martin returns to 2008 numbers, .280/87/13/69/18 consider it a major win, as it's very unlikely.
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