Players to Remember AL East
-Michael Lins 12/24/2008

Each year, owners scramble to gather information on the hottest rookies and impacts of trades and/or free agency signings.  There is good reason for this; look at what Geovany Soto and Evan Longoria were able to accomplish as rookies.  Brad Lidge was cast away by the Astros to Philadelphia, where he was perfect in every save attempt!  There are definitely players who benefit from the change of scenery each year.  

There are two other categories of players, who can provide great value - players returning from injury and those who failed to live up expectations in their first season or so in the majors. I'll take a look at players who fit into these categories, who drop some in value due to injury and/or disappointing seasons and see if they could help your team.  We'll start with the AL East.  Some are players returning from minor injuries who have had nagging injuries which hampered their seasons and some are returning from more serious injuries.  There's even a player you've heard about for a few years who is getting ready to put together his first full season.  If you're looking for rookies - you'll have to wait - that's a different article!

Baltimore Orioles
In 2008, George Sherrill awarded his owners with 31 saves as he claimed the closer’s role for the Orioles.  He had just come over in the Bedard trade and was coming off a 2007 season in which he pitched 45.2 innings, allowing only 28 hits and 17 walks.  45 baserunners in 45.2 IP is certainly closer worthy, as were the 56 K’s over those same 45.2 IP.  To go along with this, Sherrill also had an ERA of 2.36.  This all gave some fantasy owners a reason for optimism, heading into the 2008, as Baltimore’s previous closer, Chris Ray, would spend the year recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Sherrill had 28 saves at the All Star break and seemed destined for 40 saves, with 50 a possibility, but a closer look at a key stat may have indicated otherwise.  Sherrill had allowed 24 BB’s in 34 IP by the All Star break.  When the year was over, Sherrill finished with 31 saves and an ERA of 4.73, which was more on par with his other seasons (’04 – 3.80; ’05 – 5.21; ’06 – 4.28).  He also finished the season allowing 80 baserunners in 53.1 IP for a WHIP of 1.50.   Other than the 31 saves, the only closer worthy stat Sherrill produced was 58 K’s in 53.1 IP.

Going into 2009, Chris Ray is expected to return from TJ surgery and be ready to reclaim his closer role.   In ’06 Ray converted 33 of 38 SVO and in ’07, he converted 16 of 20 SVO before leaving in August for TJ surgery.  Over this year and a half, while in the closer’s role, Ray pitched a total of 108.2 innings, allowing 80 hits and 45 BB for a 1.15 WHIP.  Ray also has 95 K’s during this time period.  If Ray proves he is healthy in Spring training and ready to go, he will pick up the closer’s role.  Owners should be aware of his BB/9 IP ratio of 3.80.  It’s a bit high, but with limited options and Ray’s proven success, he will be given the opportunity to close. 

*Keep Dennis Sarfate’s name in the back of your mind.  When put in the bullpen, Sarfate struck out 71 batters in 64 IP, while allowing only 43 hits.  Like other Orioles relievers mentioned above, Sarfate also allows  too many BB – 48 in 64 IP while coming out of the bullpen, which was an improvement from his 14 in 15.2 IP as a starter.  Sarfate has a ways to go, but the potential is there.

Boston Red Sox
In 2008, Josh Beckett disappointed fantasy owners, following up his 20 win season, with a 12 win effort.    A terrible July and August, with ERA’s of 5.74 and 5.82 respectively were the main causes, along with nagging injuries.  During this time, Beckett gave up 60 hits in 48.1 IP.  An offseason of rest should be exactly what Beckett needs to allow his body to heal.  Beckett has shown better control the last two years, allowing 40 (200.2 IP) and 34 (174.1 IP).  Beckett is also good for a K/IP.  Pitching in Boston and being a power pitcher, Beckett is someone that all fantasy owners are already aware of; however, with his injury history and last year’s final statistics, Beckett could sink behind some other pitchers who he will outperform.  Don’t reach, but if he falls grab him.

New York Yankees
Each year, there are rumors of the Yankees trading Robinson Cano, which makes you have to wonder if the HR power will develop.  (Or if he has some kind of attitude problem).  This is someone who hit .342 (’06) and .306 (’07) with 15 and 19 HR’s respectively.  He also drove in 97 runs in ’07.  All of this while hitting in the bottom third of the order the majority of the time. 
Talk of a potential .300/25 HR/90 RBI season were dashed, and Cano finished 2008 with .271/14 HR/72 RBI.  During the offseason, Cano’s name again swirled in possible trade rumors with the Dodgers.  2009 will tell a lot about Cano.  He has already said that he has rededicated himself to getting in better shape and showing up ready to play.  Usually when you hear things like this, it should be a warning sign, but in this case, I don’t think the Yankees will allow Cano to show up out of shape to Spring Training.  He’s also still young and has a contract to play for.  These big dollar deals should provide some incentive.  Cano is not the .340+ hitter he showed in ’06, but he’s also better than last year’s .271.  We don’t know how the new stadium will play, but there should be a lot of excitement generated.  Cano should rebound to be a top 5 2B.  I look for a .290/22 HR/85 RBI season.

Tampa Bay Rays
BJ Upton disappointed owners who were expecting him to follow up his 24 HR ’07 campaign with something similar, as opposed to the 9 HR output from 2008.  Upton did double his SB total going from 22 to 44, which helped somewhat.  Upton was playing with a partially torn labrum and underwent surgery in November to correct it.  The surgery was identified as a success and Upton is expected to return 100% healthy.  His power numbers should increase.  In fact, I believe there will be an increase of 10-15 HR’s, accompanied with a decrease of 10-15 SB’s to coincide with the power.  The potential for a 30-30 season is there, but I feel more comfortable drafting/bidding with 20/30 as my base.  One thing lost in the power decline was the cutdown in K’s, as Upton went from 154 in 474 AB’s down to 134 in 531 AB’s.  The injured shoulder may have had Upton swinging for more contact, but the increased contact should bode well for 2009.  A player with 50 combined HR/SB’s and 175+ combined RBI/Runs is worth an early round pick.

Toronto Blue Jays
There were several players who disappointed on the Blue Jays – including Alex Rios and Vernon Wells.  The Blue Jays appear to be a weak hitting team, but if you look deeper, you will find some bargains.  Two to keep an eye on are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill.
In 676 career AB’s, Lind has posted the following line .271/90 Runs/22 HR/94 RBI/3 SB.  Lind began to see everyday playing time after the All-Star break and should keep the everyday role in 2009.  He has power potential (look for 20 HR in ’09) and a solid .280 avg.  If the Blue Jays move Rios back into the leadoff spot and place Lind third, look for better numbers; however, Lind is more likely to hit 5th or 6th at least to start off the year.
Aaron Hill suffered a concussion and was shut down on May 29th.  Hill has began resuming baseball activity and should be ready to pick up where he left off in 2007, when he hit .291/87 Runs/17 HR/78 RBI/47 Doubles.  The Blue Jays line-up is still in flux.  Hill would make a good #2 hitter, but the Blue Jays seem happier placing him in the #6 or #7 hole.  Either way, provided he is over his head injury, Hill could be a real bargain to savvy owners, who grab his .290/75 Run/20 HR/75 RBI potential.  Hill will be a great late round option.