Half Billion Dollar Staff

Michael Lins 12/14/08

This offseason, for just under half a billion dollars, a team could rebuild their pitching for the next for 4 to 6 years.  Imagine a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Sheets and Perez.  Ok, so Perez isn't the front of the rotation guy the others listed here are, but don't forget, at one time, most people thought he was going to be. 

Sabathia will undoubtedly command the largest contract, but who will prove to be the best pitcher of the bunch?  

Let's take a look at some key career stats, and then compare them to their last three years and look for signs of improvement or decline.  This should help to make some projections for the upcoming season.  Of course, a lot will matter, based on who signs where.  (Currently, Sabathia and Burnett have signed with the Yankees).

The first stat I was looking at was K/9.  Sabathia had an incease of 0.73 in his last 3 years.  Some of this was helped out when he came over to the NL and pitched for Milwaukee the second half of last season, but even so, Sabathia should still fall into the 7.90 to 8.00 range with the Yankees.  Burnett has seen an increase of 0.69, as he moved over to the AL.  This in an indicator of a power pitcher, heading into his peak, as Burnett has average a strikeout/inning over the last three years.  Lowe and Sheets have been consistent, expect more of the same.  If Sheets moves over to the AL, there will be a slight decrease.  I would anticipate Sheets dropping to about 7.35K/9 if he ends up in Texas or New York.  (I wouldn't be surprised to see a team like the Dodgers or Braves try to swoop in and grab Sheets).  The interesting change belongs to Perez.  Remember when he was sent to Pitssburgh?  He looked like he was going to be an ace.  An 8.49K/9 ratio is very good, but don't overlook the decline of 0.76 from his career numbers.

BB/9 is a good stat to determine wildness.  As a pitcher becomes more experienced, it is natural to think this number should decline, which it has for all pitchers.  Sabathia's drop of 1.01 BB/9 is phenonimal.  Sheets has also remained below 2.00 BB/9 for his career.  Perez has cutdown, but only from 4.76 to 4.69.  Unless Perez shows a drastic change in the next year or two, whoever signs him, will regret the large contract he's sure to receive.

Another excellent indicator of a pitcher's growth is his K/BB ratio.  Sabathia has increased almost a full two K's/BB (2.66 to 4.51).  Burnett's 0.50 increase should also be seen as an indication of a power pitcher learning how to pitcher.  He still has plenty of room for growth, but seems to be turning a corner.  Sheets has gone from 3.85 to an even 4.00.  The increase may no be significant, but the actual number shows the great control that Sheets exhibits.

If you look at HR/9, you will also see improvements for Sabathia, Lowe, Sheets and Perez.  None were extremely significant, although it should be pointed out that Lowe's 0.69 ratio, Sheets, 0.87 and Sabathia's 0.73 ratios are favorable, while Perez's 1.23 in unfavorable.  Burnett's increase from 0.80 to 0.96 also bears further examination.  Taking into account the home stadiums for the Marlins and the Blue Jays should help to explain the difference, as Burnett left a pitcher friendly NL stadium and moved into a hitter friendly, AL stadium.  Look for Burnett's ratio to decrease back down to about 0.85 in New York.

It is very difficult to say for any certainty how pitcher's will handle new teams, cities, etc, but here is a look at how I think these 5 starting pitchers will fare in 2009.  The projections for Lowe, Sheets and Perez will vary, depending on which league they end up in.  As far as determining breakout, plateau or bust; Sabathia began his breakout over the last two years and it should continue over the next couple of years.  Burnett is just beginning to learn how to pitch.  Look for an increased breakout as he haed's into New York, with a chance to compete for the AL Cy Young award in the next couple of years.  Lowe has reached the best levels of his career.  A small decrease is to be expected, no matter where he signs.  The potential that Perez once flashed is all but gone.  Look for a decrease in numbers, as Perez continues to tease fantasy owners with high strikeout totals and not much else.  This leaves us with Sheets.  The oft-injured pitcher is going have to prove he can stay healthy before fantasy owners invest a higher pick in him.  If he ends up in Texas, leave him for another owner, bu if a team in the NL, in need of a front of the rotation guy grabs him, like the Dodgers or Braves, keep an eye on him and if he is there later, Sheets would make an excellent #3 starter.